Phenology effects on productivity and hatching-asynchrony of American kestrels ( <i>Falco sparverius</i> ) across a continent

Abstract Climate-driven advances in spring can result in phenological mismatch between brood rearing and prey availability and consequently cause decreased productivity in birds. How consequences of mismatch vary across species’ ranges, and how individual behavior can mitigate mismatch effects is less studied. We quantified the relationship between phenological mismatch, productivity, and behavioral adaptations of American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) across their breeding range in the United States and southern Canada. We obtained phenology and productivity data using nest observations from long term nest box monitoring, remote trail cameras, and community-scientist based programs. We collected data on parental incubation behavior and hatch asynchrony using trail cameras in nest boxes. Kestrels that laid eggs after the start of spring had higher rates of nest failure and fewer nestlings than earlier nesters, and effects of mismatch on productivity were most severe in the Northeast. In contrast, kestrels in the Southwest experienced a more gradual decline in productivity with seasonal mismatch. We attribute the effect of location to the growing season and temporal nesting windows (duration of nesting season). Specifically, resource availability in the Northeast is narrow and highly peaked during the breeding season, potentially resulting in shorter nesting windows. Conversely, resource curves may be more prolonged and dampened in the Southwest, and growing seasons are becoming longer with climate change, potentially resulting in longer nesting windows. We found that the onset of male incubation was negatively associated with lay date. Males from breeding pairs that laid eggs after the start of spring began incubation sooner than males from breeding pairs that laid before the start of spring. Early-onset male incubation was positively associated with hatching asynchrony, creating increased age variation in developing young. In sum, we demonstrate that American kestrels are vulnerable to phenological mismatch, and that this vulnerability varies across space. Northeastern populations could be more vulnerable to mismatch consequences, which may be one factor contributing to declines of kestrels in this region. Also, we demonstrate early onset of incubation as a potential adaptive behavior to advance average hatch date and spread out offspring demands, but it is unknown how impactful this will be in mitigating the fitness consequences of phenology mismatch. Highlights Climate-driven phenological mismatch is a growing conservation concern. We studied phenology and productivity of an avian predator across North America. American kestrels nesting after the start of spring had lower productivity. Later nesting kestrels altered incubation to create hatching asynchrony. Mismatch effects were strongest in the Northeast and may contribute to population declines.

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