Zero‐inflated Poisson model with clustered regression coefficients: Application to heterogeneity learning of field goal attempts of professional basketball players
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Although basketball is a dynamic process sport, played between two sides of five players each, learning some static information is essential for professional players, coaches, and team managers. In order to have a deep understanding of field goal attempts among different players, we propose a zero‐inflated Poisson model with clustered regression coefficients to learn the shooting habits of different players over the court and the heterogeneity among them. Specifically, the zero‐inflated model captures a large portion of the court with zero field goal attempts, and the mixture of finite mixtures model captures the heterogeneity among different players based on clustered regression coefficients and inflated probabilities. Both theoretical and empirical justification through simulation studies validate our proposed method. We apply our proposed model to data from the National Basketball Association (NBA), for learning players' shooting habits and heterogeneity among different players over the 2017–2018 regular season. This illustrates our model as a way of providing insights from different aspects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.031 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".