Model-based stratification of progression along the Alzheimer disease continuum highlights the centrality of biomarker synergies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The progression rates of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are variable and dynamic, yet the mechanisms that contribute to heterogeneity in progression rates remain ill-understood. Particularly, the role of synergies in pathological processes reflected by biomarkers for amyloid-beta ('A'), tau ('T'), and neurodegeneration ('N') in progression along the AD continuum is not fully understood. METHODS: Here, we used a combination of model and data-driven approaches to address this question. Working with a large dataset (N = 321 across the training and testing cohorts), we first applied unsupervised clustering on longitudinal cognitive assessments to divide individuals on the AD continuum into those showing fast vs. moderate decline. Next, we developed a deep learning model that differentiated fast vs. moderate decline using baseline AT(N) biomarkers. RESULTS: Training the model with AT(N) biomarker combination revealed more prognostic utility than any individual biomarkers alone. We additionally found little overlap between the model-driven progression phenotypes and established atrophy-based AD subtypes. Our model showed that the combination of all AT(N) biomarkers had the most prognostic utility in predicting progression along the AD continuum. A comprehensive AT(N) model showed better predictive performance than biomarker pairs (A(N) and T(N)) and individual biomarkers (A, T, or N). CONCLUSIONS: This study combined data and model-driven methods to uncover the role of AT(N) biomarker synergies in the progression of cognitive decline along the AD continuum. The results suggest a synergistic relationship between AT(N) biomarkers in determining this progression, extending previous evidence of A-T synergistic mechanisms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".