Short-Term Prediction of Traffic State for a Rural Road Applying Ensemble Learning Process
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Short-term prediction of traffic variables aims at providing information for travelers before commencing their trips. In this paper, machine learning methods consisting of long short-term memory (LSTM), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN) are employed to predict traffic state, categorized into A to C for segments of a rural road network. Since the temporal variation of rural road traffic is irregular, the performance of applied algorithms varies among different time intervals. To find the most precise prediction for each time interval for segments, several ensemble methods, including voting methods and ordinal logit (OL) model, are utilized to ensemble predictions of four machine learning algorithms. The Karaj-Chalus rural road traffic data was used as a case study to show how to implement it. As there are many influential features on traffic state, the genetic algorithm (GA) has been used to identify 25 of 32 features, which are the most influential on models’ fitness. Results show that the OL model as an ensemble learning model outperforms machine learning models, and its accuracy is equal to 80.03 percent. The highest balanced accuracy achieved by OL for predicting traffic states A, B, and C is 89, 73.4, and 58.5 percent, respectively.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".