Section II. The forecast in detail
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although we are now into the new year, figures for the final quarter of 2000 are generally estimated in the forecast. Third quarter real GDP growth in 2000 was 0.7 per cent, down from 1 per cent the previous quarter with fourth quarter growth of 0.3 per cent reported after the forecast was completed. Overall this yields an estimate for growth for 2000 as a whole of about 3 per cent. Much of the fourth quarter has been affected by the continued disruption to the railway network coupled with depressed output in the oil and gas industry, something we comment on further below. However, as seasonally adjusted retail sales growth for the fourth quarter was 1.3 per cent, following on from a revised 1.2 per cent growth the previous quarter, the picture is not uniformly weak. It remains to be seen exactly how much the small fourth quarter growth rate is due to special factors. Growth of almost 3 per cent in 2001 is forecast, followed by 3¼ per cent in 2002, with the growth rate falling back towards its trend value of 2½ per cent after this.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".