Structural differences in adolescent brains can predict alcohol misuse
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Alcohol misuse during adolescence (AAM) has been linked with disruptive structural development of the brain and alcohol use disorder. Using machine learning (ML), we analyze the link between AAM phenotypes and adolescent brain structure (T1-weighted imaging and DTI) at ages 14, 19, and 22 in the IMAGEN dataset ( n ∼ 1182). ML predicted AAM at age 22 from brain structure with a balanced accuracy of 78% on independent test data. Therefore, structural differences in adolescent brains could significantly predict AAM. Using brain structure at age 14 and 19, ML predicted AAM at age 22 with a balanced accuracy of 73% and 75%, respectively. These results showed that structural differences preceded alcohol misuse behavior in the dataset. The most informative features were located in the white matter tracts of the corpus callosum and internal capsule, brain stem, and ventricular CSF. In the cortex, they were spread across the occipital, frontal, and temporal lobes and in the cingulate cortex. Our study also demonstrates how the choice of the phenotype for AAM, the ML method, and the confound correction technique are all crucial decisions in an exploratory ML study analyzing psychiatric disorders with weak effect sizes such as AAM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".