Short-time traffic flow prediction based on seasonal gray Fourier model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract To handle the periodic, nonlinear, and stochastic aspects of short-time traffic flow data, a seasonal gray Fourier model based on the complex Simpson formula is proposed. The seasonal GM (1, 1) model is used to optimize the background values first, and then the prediction results are adjusted using the Fourier series method. The new model was applied to the prediction of traffic flow on Whitemud Drive in Canada, and the numerical results indicated that the new model's mean absolute percentage error was 1.54 percent and its fit was 0.996, which were significantly better than those of the traditional GM (1, 1) model, the seasonal GM (1, 1) model, and the Fourier optimized seasonal GM (1, 1) model.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.027 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it