Debt‐to‐GDP changes and the great recession: European Periphery versus European Core
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this paper, we use simple accounting schemes and counterfactual experiments, to compare the sources of changes in the public debt to GDP ratio across countries of the European Periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), the European Core (Germany and France) and the other G7 countries (Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States), in two periods—2000–2007 and 2008–2015. In general, Debt‐to‐GDP ratio rose in all countries in the latter period. But the effects of total or primary fiscal deficits, inflation and real growth on the respective Debt‐to‐GDP ratio changes were different across countries in both periods. In the European Core, Ireland and the Anglo‐Saxon countries, successful countercyclical fiscal policies, tended to lower Debt‐to‐GDP ratio. However, in the other European Periphery countries and Japan, unsuccessful countercyclical policies, had the opposite effect. Since in the Euro Area (EA), monetary policy is common and fiscal policies were restricted by rules, this development suggests that differences in shock propagation mechanisms were important drivers of the observed differences in the behaviour of Debt‐to‐GDP ratio between the European Core and the EA Periphery, except Ireland. An implication of this result is that the recently announced EU transfers to the EA Periphery tied up to incentives to improve economic efficiency, seem to be the right policies to ameliorate the effects of the recession brought about by the various social distancing measures to fight the COVID‐19 pandemic, without increasing the Debt‐to‐GDP ratios of these countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".