Epidemiology of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: Systematic Review, Meta-Analyses, and Meta-Regressions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study characterized the epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. METHODS: Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2-related data up to January 21, 2021. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed. RESULTS: In Canada, pooled mean seroprevalence was 10.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.8-12.4%) among general populations, 44.5% (95% CI, 20.0-70.5%) among sexually transmitted infection clinic attendees and symptomatic populations, and 60.7% (95% CI, 49.8-71.1%) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals and individuals in HIV-discordant couples. In Australia and New Zealand, combined, pooled mean seroprevalence was 15.4% (95% CI, 9.6-22.2%) among general populations, 27.8% (95% CI, 12.0-47.2%) among men who have sex with men, and 37.2% (95% CI, 23.7-51.8%) among sexually transmitted infection clinic attendees and symptomatic populations. Men had 0.64-fold (95% CI, 0.47-0.86) lower seroprevalence compared with women. No evidence was found for a decline in seroprevalence over time. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-2 isolation in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes was 62.1% (95% CI, 53.8-70.1%) in Canada and 71.9% (95% CI, 64.2-78.9%) in Australia and New Zealand. Proportion of HSV-2 isolation in genital herpes declined by 0.98-fold (95% CI, 0.97-0.99) per year. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-2 isolation in genital ulcer disease was 17.4% (95% CI, 4.0-37.1%) in these countries. CONCLUSIONS: Over 10% of adults in these countries are infected, with no evidence for declining seroprevalence, unlike other global regions. Over 60% of genital herpes cases are caused by HSV-2 in these countries, yet HSV-2's role is declining by 2% per year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.026 | 0.064 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.018 | 0.042 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".