Systemic Periodontal Risk Score Using an Innovative Machine Learning Strategy: An Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Early diagnosis is crucial for individuals who are susceptible to tooth-supporting tissue diseases (e.g., periodontitis) that may lead to tooth loss, so as to prevent systemic implications and maintain quality of life. The aim of this study was to propose a personalized explainable machine learning algorithm, solely based on non-invasive predictors that can easily be collected in a clinic, to identify subjects at risk of developing periodontal diseases. To this end, the individual data and periodontal health of 532 subjects was assessed. A machine learning pipeline combining a feature selection step, multilayer perceptron, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainability, was used to build the algorithm. The prediction scores for healthy periodontium and periodontitis gave final F1-scores of 0.74 and 0.68, respectively, while gingival inflammation was harder to predict (F1-score of 0.32). Age, body mass index, smoking habits, systemic pathologies, diet, alcohol, educational level, and hormonal status were found to be the most contributive variables for periodontal health prediction. The algorithm clearly shows different risk profiles before and after 35 years of age and suggests transition ages in the predisposition to developing gingival inflammation or periodontitis. This innovative approach to systemic periodontal disease risk profiles, combining both ML and up-to-date explainability algorithms, paves the way for new periodontal health prediction strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".