Exploring Patient Multimorbidity and Complexity Using Health Insurance Claims Data: A Cluster Analysis Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although the trend of progressing morbidity is widely recognized, there are numerous challenges when studying multimorbidity and patient complexity. For multimorbid or complex patients, prone to fragmented care and high health care use, novel estimation approaches need to be developed. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the patient multimorbidity and complexity of Swiss residents aged ≥50 years using clustering methodology in claims data. METHODS: We adopted a clustering methodology based on random forests and used 34 pharmacy-based cost groups as the only input feature for the procedure. To detect clusters, we applied hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise. The reasonable hyperparameters were chosen based on various metrics embedded in the algorithms (out-of-bag misclassification error, normalized stress, and cluster persistence) and the clinical relevance of the obtained clusters. RESULTS: Based on cluster analysis output for 18,732 individuals, we identified an outlier group and 7 clusters: individuals without diseases, patients with only hypertension-related diseases, patients with only mental diseases, complex high-cost high-need patients, slightly complex patients with inexpensive low-severity pharmacy-based cost groups, patients with 1 costly disease, and older high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that cluster analysis based on pharmacy-based cost group information from claims-based data is feasible and highlights clinically relevant clusters. Such an approach allows expanding the understanding of multimorbidity beyond simple disease counts and can identify the population profiles with increased health care use and costs. This study may foster the development of integrated and coordinated care, which is high on the agenda in policy making, care planning, and delivery.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".