Associations between Longitudinal Gestational Weight Gain and Scalar Infant Birth Weight: A Bayesian Joint Modeling Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the importance of maternal gestational weight gain, it is not yet conclusively understood how weight gain during different stages of pregnancy influences health outcomes for either mother or child. We partially attribute this to differences in and the validity of statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal and scalar outcome data. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian joint regression model that estimates and uses trajectory parameters as predictors of a scalar response. Our model remedies notable issues with traditional linear regression approaches found in the clinical literature. In particular, our methodology accommodates nonprospective designs by correcting for bias in self-reported prestudy measures; truly accommodates sparse longitudinal observations and short-term variation without data aggregation or precomputation; and is more robust to the choice of model changepoints. We demonstrate these advantages through a real-world application to the Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition (APrON) dataset and a comparison to a linear regression approach from the clinical literature. Our methods extend naturally to other maternal and infant outcomes as well as to areas of research that employ similarly structured data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".