The 21-Year Trend of Stroke Incidence in a General Japanese Population: Results from the Takashima Stroke Registry, 1990–2010
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Since the 1960s, the stroke morality rate in Japan has declined significantly. Although several risk factors for stroke have become more evident due to increasingly Westernized lifestyle, there have been no population-based registry data on recent time trends in stroke incidence in Japan. The purpose of this study is to determine these trends in stroke incidence using a population-based registry. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Takashima Stroke Registry, which covers approximately 50,000 residents in Takashima City, Japan. The age- and sex-standardized stroke incidence rate was estimated using the direct method. Average annual relative changes of stroke incidence were estimated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We identified a total of 2,371 patients with first-ever stroke during the period 1990-2010. Crude incidence rates of total stroke (per 100,000 person-years) were 225 in the early period (1990-2001) and 187 in the late period (2002-2010), and the mean age at onset of stroke increased from 71.9 years in the early period to 74.8 years in the late period. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of stroke (per 100,000 person-years) decreased from 327 in the early part of this study period and 206 in the later period. During the 21-year period, age- and sex-standardized average annual relative reduction in stroke incidence was statistically significant (-3.7% per year). When stratified into early and late periods, the adjusted annual relative reduction in stroke incidence was observed during the early period (-2.1% per year), and there were no significant changes during the late period. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based registry, there was a significant reduction in incidence of stroke from 1990 to 2010. Although the speed of reduction in stroke incidence appears to have slowed down after 2000, continuous public health measures are required to provide further protection against stroke.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".