Long‐term data reveal effects of climate, road access, and latitude on mountain goat horn size
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Potential negative artificial selection on horn size is a concern for many harvested ungulates. The mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) has distinct black horns, but targeting animals based on horn size in the field can be challenging. We analyzed over 23,000 horn records that included base circumference and total length, from which we also derived horn volume, from mountain goats harvested in Alaska, British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories from 1980 to 2016. We tested 3 potential drivers of horn size variation: geographical location, environmental conditions, and artificial selection. We found no support for a latitudinal effect with surprisingly little variation across the sampling distribution. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation had the largest effect outside age in the model, suggesting a role of climate in shaping variation. Mountain goats harvested closer to roads had larger horns, indicating that ease of access might allow hunters to be more selective, though the effect size was small. Our findings reinforce the value of accurate and complete record keeping on horn size, age, and sex of harvested animals, and highlight the importance of explicitly considering climate and accessibility when devising management strategies for the mountain goat.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".