Modeling Geographic Uncertainty in Current and Future Habitat for Potential Populations of <i>Ixodes pacificus</i> (Acari: Ixodidae) in Alaska
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls is the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the western United States. Although not native to Alaska, this tick species has recently been found on domestic animals in the state. Ixodes pacificus has a known native range within the western contiguous United States and southwest Canada; therefore, it is not clear if introduced individuals can successfully survive and reproduce in the high-latitude climate of Alaska. To identify areas of suitable habitat within Alaska for I. pacificus, we used model parameters from two existing sets of ensemble habitat distribution models calibrated in the contiguous United States. To match the model input covariates, we calculated climatic and land cover covariates for the present (1980-2014) and future (2070-2100) climatologies in Alaska. The present-day habitat suitability maps suggest that the climate and land cover in Southeast Alaska and portions of Southcentral Alaska could support the establishment of I. pacificus populations. Future forecasts suggest an increase in suitable habitat with considerable uncertainty for many areas of the state. Repeated introductions of this non-native tick to Alaska increase the likelihood that resident populations could become established.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".