Price and Volatility Transmissions among Natural Gas, Fertilizer, and Corn Markets: A Revisit
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we revisit price and volatility transmission among natural gas, fertilizer, and corn markets; an important issue was explored in previous work. An update of the results is urgently needed due to the recent enormous price volatility in the commodities, fertilizer, and energy markets. We followed the same methodology as previous work and used the vector error correction model and the multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity model, but we adopted a new methodology to gather higher frequency data for fertilizer to estimate the interactions and examine the mechanisms between these market prices. Our results are consistent with previous research showing that natural gas price returns in the short-term are significantly affected by its lagged returns from itself and corn markets, and it will be affected by its lagged return sand fertilizer markets. However, we did not find a significant relationship among fertilizer, corn, and natural gas markets from May to November 2021. Moreover, the lagged conditional volatility of corn prices will affect the conditional volatility in the natural gas market but not vice versa.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".