Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Competitiveness in Morocco: Estimation by the ARDL Cointegration Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study estimated the real equilibrium exchange rate and its misalignment by adopting the Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) approach and ARDL cointegration model. The aim is to interpret the impact of the determinants used to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate and assess the importance of the exchange rate in the Moroccan economy through the evolution and the reaction of the trade balance vis-à-vis the misalignment. The results showed that the rise in terms of trade can have an impact on the appreciation of the exchange rate and constrain Moroccan exports. This evidence confirms indeed the importance of the exchange rate as an instrument of price competitiveness. The study also identified a competitiveness problem linked to the structure of the Moroccan economy showing an absence of the Blassa-Samuelson effect. The impact of public spending on the exchange rate shows a problem of the nature of this spending which is more oriented towards tradable goods contributing to higher imports and hence to the deterioration of the trade balance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".