A new state-dependent parameterization for the free drift of sea ice
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Free-drift estimates of sea ice motion are necessary to produce a seamless observational record combining buoy and satellite-derived sea ice motion vectors. We develop a new parameterization for the free drift of sea ice based on wind forcing, wind turning angle, sea ice state variables (thickness and concentration), and estimates of the ocean currents. Given the fact that the spatial distribution of the wind–ice–ocean transfer coefficient has a similar structure to that of the spatial distribution of sea ice thickness, we take the standard free-drift equation and introduce a wind–ice–ocean transfer coefficient that scales linearly with ice thickness. Results show a mean bias error of −0.5 cm s−1 (low-speed bias) and a root-mean-square error of 5.1 cm s−1, considering daily buoy drift data as truth. This represents a 35 % reduction of the error on drift speed compared to the free-drift estimates used in the Polar Pathfinder dataset (Tschudi et al., 2019b). The thickness-dependent transfer coefficient provides an improved seasonality and long-term trend of the sea ice drift speed, with a minimum (maximum) drift speed in May (October), compared to July (January) for the constant transfer coefficient parameterizations which simply follow the peak in mean surface wind stresses. Over the 1979–2019 period, the trend in sea ice drift in this new model is +0.45 cm s−1 per decade compared with +0.39 cm s−1 per decade from the buoy observations, whereas there is essentially no trend in a free-drift parameterization with a constant transfer coefficient (−0.09 cm s−1 per decade) or the Polar Pathfinder free-drift input data (−0.01 cm s−1 per decade). The optimal wind turning angle obtained from a least-squares fitting is 25∘, resulting in a mean error and a root-mean-square error of +3 and 42∘ on the direction of the drift, respectively. The ocean current estimates obtained from the minimization procedure resolve key large-scale features such as the Beaufort Gyre and Transpolar Drift Stream and are in good agreement with ocean state estimates from the ECCO, GLORYS, and PIOMAS ice–ocean reanalyses, as well as geostrophic currents from dynamical ocean topography, with a root-mean-square difference of 2.4, 2.9, 2.6, and 3.8 cm s−1, respectively. Finally, a repeat of the analysis on two sub-sections of the time series (pre- and post-2000) clearly shows the acceleration of the Beaufort Gyre (particularly along the Alaskan coastline) and an expansion of the gyre in the post-2000s, concurrent with a thinning of the sea ice cover and the observed acceleration of the ice drift speed and ocean currents. This new dataset is publicly available for complementing merged observation-based sea ice drift datasets that include satellite and buoy drift records.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".