Cross-institutional outcome prediction for head and neck cancer patients using self-attention neural networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In radiation oncology, predicting patient risk stratification allows specialization of therapy intensification as well as selecting between systemic and regional treatments, all of which helps to improve patient outcome and quality of life. Deep learning offers an advantage over traditional radiomics for medical image processing by learning salient features from training data originating from multiple datasets. However, while their large capacity allows to combine high-level medical imaging data for outcome prediction, they lack generalization to be used across institutions. In this work, a pseudo-volumetric convolutional neural network with a deep preprocessor module and self-attention (PreSANet) is proposed for the prediction of distant metastasis, locoregional recurrence, and overall survival occurrence probabilities within the 10 year follow-up time frame for head and neck cancer patients with squamous cell carcinoma. The model is capable of processing multi-modal inputs of variable scan length, as well as integrating patient data in the prediction model. These proposed architectural features and additional modalities all serve to extract additional information from the available data when availability to additional samples is limited. This model was trained on the public Cancer Imaging Archive Head-Neck-PET-CT dataset consisting of 298 patients undergoing curative radio/chemo-radiotherapy and acquired from 4 different institutions. The model was further validated on an internal retrospective dataset with 371 patients acquired from one of the institutions in the training dataset. An extensive set of ablation experiments were performed to test the utility of the proposed model characteristics, achieving an AUROC of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] for DM, LR and OS respectively on the public TCIA Head-Neck-PET-CT dataset. External validation was performed on a retrospective dataset with 371 patients, achieving [Formula: see text] AUROC in all outcomes. To test for model generalization across sites, a validation scheme consisting of single site-holdout and cross-validation combining both datasets was used. The mean accuracy across 4 institutions obtained was [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] for DM, LR and OS respectively. The proposed model demonstrates an effective method for tumor outcome prediction for multi-site, multi-modal combining both volumetric data and structured patient clinical data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".