The need to see a bigger picture to understand the ups and downs of Pacific salmon abundances
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract There are more Pacific salmon in the ocean recently than in recorded history. Increases are believed to be related to shifts in climate but specific, biologically based mechanisms linking climate to increases are not known. At the same time, Pacific salmon abundances in Japan and on Canada's west coast are at historic low levels with attempts to stop the decline unsuccessful. Most juvenile salmon that enter the ocean die, resulting in large abundance increases and decreases from small changes in the already very low ocean survival. Because of this sensitivity to changes in ocean ecosystems and because of the recent basin-scale fluctuations in trends in abundance, I propose that it is time to see a bigger picture and improve the understanding of the biological mechanisms that most influence ocean survival. I leave it to readers to decide if my example of Pacific salmon is part of a more general need in fisheries science to better understand the biological mechanisms linking survival to climate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.018 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".