The Ottawa 3DY Predicts Mortality in a Prospective Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The Ottawa 3DY (O3DY) is a simple measure of cognition. Objectives: 1) To determine if the O3DY predicts mortality; and 2) To compare the discrimination of the O3DY to the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Modified MMSE (3MS). Methods: Analyses of a population based cohort study of 1,751 participants aged 65+; conducted in 1991/2 with follow-up over five years. The O3DY, age, sex, education, comorbid conditions, the MMSE, and the 3MS were measured: 4.5% of the participants had missing data for the O3DY; 42.8% were considered as positive (one or more errors), and 52.7% were considered as negative (no errors). Logistic regression models were constructed with the outcome of death at time 2. A Receiver Operator Curve (ROC) was constructed and the Area Under the ROC (AUROC) was calculated using a c-statistic. Results: The unadjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for mortality was 1.96 (1.56, 2.47); and the adjusted OR was 1.33 (1.02, 1.72). The AUROC was 0.66 for the 3MS, 0.65 for the MMSE, and 0.60 for the O3DY. Conclusions: The O3DY predicts mortality over a long time frame, although the discrimination is less than that of longer measures of cognition.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".