The Ottawa 3DY Predicts Mortality in a Prospective Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The Ottawa 3DY (O3DY) is a simple measure of cognition. Objectives: 1) To determine if the O3DY predicts mortality; and 2) To compare the discrimination of the O3DY to the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Modified MMSE (3MS). Methods: Analyses of a population based cohort study of 1,751 participants aged 65+; conducted in 1991/2 with follow-up over five years. The O3DY, age, sex, education, comorbid conditions, the MMSE, and the 3MS were measured: 4.5% of the participants had missing data for the O3DY; 42.8% were considered as positive (one or more errors), and 52.7% were considered as negative (no errors). Logistic regression models were constructed with the outcome of death at time 2. A Receiver Operator Curve (ROC) was constructed and the Area Under the ROC (AUROC) was calculated using a c-statistic. Results: The unadjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for mortality was 1.96 (1.56, 2.47); and the adjusted OR was 1.33 (1.02, 1.72). The AUROC was 0.66 for the 3MS, 0.65 for the MMSE, and 0.60 for the O3DY. Conclusions: The O3DY predicts mortality over a long time frame, although the discrimination is less than that of longer measures of cognition.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".