Relative Age Effects in Male Cricket: A Personal Assets Approach to Explain Immediate, Short-Term, and Long-Term Developmental Outcomes
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to adopt the Personal Assets Framework (PAF) to examine the immediate, short-term, and long-term developmental outcomes associated with relative age effects (RAEs) in male cricket. As such, this study was comprised of three aims: (a) examine the birth quarter (BQ) distribution of players throughout the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) national talent pathway (i.e., Regional U15, Regional U17, England U19, England Lions, England T20, England ODI, and England Test; n = 1800; immediate timescale), (b) explore the youth-to-senior transitions based on BQ and skill-set (i.e., batters and bowlers; short-term timescale), and (c) analyse the average number of games played at senior levels based on BQ and skill-set (i.e., long-term timescale). A chi-square goodness of fit test, Cramer’s V, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals were used to compare the BQ distributions of each cohort against the expected BQ distributions. In the immediate timescale, results showed that relatively older players were overrepresented throughout all the youth levels (p < 0.05, V = 0.16−0.30), whereas there were no differences at senior levels (p > 0.05, V = 0.05−0.15). In the short-term timescale, when the senior cohorts were compared to the expected BQ distributions based on the Regional U15 cohort, relatively younger players were more likely to transition from youth to senior levels (p < 0.05, V = 0.22−0.37). In the long-term timescale, relatively older batters were selected for more games (p < 0.05, V = 0.18−0.51), whereas relatively younger bowlers were selected for more games (p < 0.05, V = 0.17−0.39). Moving forward, it is important for researchers and practitioners to better understand how (bi)annual-age grouping shapes developmental outcomes in across different timescales (i.e., immediate, short-term, and long-term), as well as consider alternative grouping strategies and RAE solutions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it