Projected Antarctic extreme heat events in a warming world
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As global temperatures increase, Antarctica is likely to experience increased frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature events. Here we investigate how the characteristics of summer extreme temperature events - heatwaves and incidence of melt days - may change over Antarctica using daily historical and SSP5-8.5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) output from 1950-2099. CMIP6 models robustly project that Antarctica’s lowest elevation regions and the West Antarctic ice sheet will reach 0C for an average of 6-12 days during summer by 2099. Modelled summer heatwaves become more intense across the entire continent, but less frequent and shorter everywhere except the East Antarctic Plateau due to declining temperature variability as surface temperatures approach the melting point of ice. Our results imply that the increasing frequency of 0C days and greater heatwave intensity will contribute to increasing ice sheet surface melt and accelerating global sea level rise over the coming century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".