Risk of variceal hemorrhage and pretransplant mortality in children with biliary atresia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The natural history of gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage (VH) in biliary atresia (BA) is not well characterized. We analyzed risk factors, incidence, and outcomes of VH in a longitudinal multicenter study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Participants enrolled in either an incident (Prospective Database of Infants with Cholestasis [PROBE]) or prevalent (Biliary Atresia Study of Infants and Children [BASIC]) cohort of BA were included. Variceal hemorrhage (VH) was defined based on gastrointestinal bleeding in the presence of varices accompanied by endoscopic or nontransplant surgical intervention. Cumulative incidence of VH and transplant-free survival was compared based on features of portal hypertension (e.g., splenomegaly, thrombocytopenia) and clinical parameters at baseline in each cohort (PROBE: 1.5 to 4.5 months after hepatoportoenterostomy [HPE]; BASIC: at enrollment > 3 years of age). Analyses were conducted on 869 children with BA enrolled between June 2004 and December 2020 (521 in PROBE [262 (51%) with a functioning HPE] and 348 in BASIC). The overall incidence of first observed VH at 5 years was 9.4% (95% CI: 7.0-12.4) in PROBE and 8.0% (5.2-11.5) in BASIC. Features of portal hypertension, platelet count, total bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin, and AST-to-platelet ratio index at baseline were associated with an increased risk of subsequent VH in both cohorts. Transplant-free survival at 5 years was 45.1% (40.5-49.6) in PROBE and 79.2% (74.1-83.4) in BASIC. Two (2.5%) of 80 participants who had VH died, whereas 10 (12.5%) underwent transplant within 6 weeks of VH. CONCLUSIONS: The low risk of VH and associated mortality in children with BA needs to be considered in decisions related to screening for varices and primary prophylaxis of VH.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".