The Canadian–US dollar exchange rate over the four decades of the post‐Bretton Woods float: An econometric study allowing for structural breaks
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The purpose of this study is to establish a theory‐consistent econometric model for the Canadian–US dollar exchange rate over the post‐Bretton Woods floating period, 1975–2021. In pursuing the objective, this paper reviews Canadian history in the context of major political events, bearing in mind the importance of oil for the Canadian economy, and it also assigns importance to allowing for structural breaks in the early 1980s and 2000s observed in the data. The overall empirical results support the fundamental‐based view of the long‐run exchange rate determination. This study also examines long‐run and short‐run influences of oil prices on the exchange rate dynamics because of the anticipated significant role for the US–Canada dyad.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it