North Water Polynya Sensitivity to Arctic Warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The North Water Polynya (NOW) in northern Baffin Bay contains nutrient-rich waters which are essential to the biodiversity of the region and the native Inuit people. Over the observational period the size and duration of the NOW in spring has varied considerably, and recent studies suggest the NOW may fail to form in the future. Even small changes to the polynya have the potential to impact local ocean circulation and nutrient cycling. To assess the projected changes to the NOW, we look at CMIP5 large ensembles under multiple forcing scenarios. Initial results from CESM1 LE suggest that global temperatures greater than 2.5ºC above pre-industrial levels shift the peak polynya area from June to May. Work is ongoing to assess biogenic and physical impacts of such changes. Implications for climate change are that to avoid large changes to the NOW, warming should be limited. Additionally, the Polynya area fluctuates with time but decreases as a whole throughout the 21st century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".