Bayesian Bivariate Cure Rate Models Using Copula Functions
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Bivariate survival cure rate models extend the understanding of time-to-event data by allowing for a cured fraction of the population and dependence between paired units and make more accurate and informative conclusions. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian bivariate cure rate mode where a correlation coefficient is used for the association between bivariate cure rate fractions and a new generalized Farlie Gumbel Morgenstern (FGM) copula function is applied to model the dependence structure of bivariate survival times. For each marginal survival time, we apply a Weibull distribution, a log normal distribution, and a flexible three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to compare their performance. For the survival model fitting, DIC and LPML are used for model comparison. We perform a goodness-of-fit test for the new copula. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the proposed methods in simulated data and real data via Bayesian paradigm.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it