Comparing future climatic suitability to shoreline loss for recreational beach use: a case study of five Japanese beaches
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Coastal tourism is impacted by regional environmental change, including sea-level rise and climatic change. A case study at five Japanese beaches was conducted to determine the relative difference in coastal and climatic changes that are important for recreational beach tourism. Future climate conditions and projections of shoreline changes due to sea-level rise were estimated using ensembles of 14 and 21 Global Circulation Models (GCMs), respectively. The Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) specific to recreational beach use was used to assess historical and future climatic suitability while beach loss area was used to quantify physical changes to beach conditions. Diminished beaches with improved climate conditions were observed at all sites except Yonehara, which had both diminished beach and climate conditions. Comparing HCI:Beach scores relative to historical conditions revealed a change of -2.4 to +10%, while beach losses were typically >60%. These results highlight that beach tourism suitability at the study sites will likely exhibit greater changes due to sea-level rise, compared to those driven by changing atmospheric conditions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01906-2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".