Not all is lost: Functional recovery in older adults following emergency general surgery
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although functional decline and death are common long-term outcomes among older adults following emergency general surgery (EGS), we hypothesized that patients' postdischarge function may wax and wane over time. Periods of fluctuation in function may represent opportunities to intervene to prevent further decline. Our objective was to describe the functional trajectories of older adults following EGS admission. METHODS: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study of all independent, community-dwelling older adults (age ≥65 years) in Ontario with an EGS admission (2006-2016). A multistate model was used to examine patients' functional trajectories over the 5 years following discharge. Patients were followed as they transitioned back and forth between functional independence, use of chronic home care (in-home assistance for personal care, homemaking, or medical care for at least 90 days), nursing home admission, and death. RESULTS: We identified 78,820 older adults with an EGS admission (mean age, 77 years; 53% female). In the 5 years following admission, 32% (n = 24,928) required new chronic home care, 21% (n = 5,249) of whom had two or more episodes of chronic home care separated by periods of independence. The average time spent in chronic home care was 11 months, and 50% (n = 12,679) of chronic home care episodes ended with a return to independence. For patients requiring chronic home care at any time, the probability of returning to independent living during the subsequent 5 years ranged from 36% to 43% annually. CONCLUSION: Not all is lost for older adults who experience functional decline following EGS admission. Half of those who require chronic home care will recover to independence, and one-third will have a durable recovery, remaining independent after 5 years. Fluctuations in function in the years following EGS may represent a unique opportunity for interventions to promote rehabilitation and recovery among older adults. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and Epidemiologic; Level III.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".