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Record W4220766923 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1377902/v1

Multilayer Perceptron-based Predictive Model for the Reconstruction of Missing Rainfall Data

2022· preprint· en· W4220766923 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2022
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicHydrological Forecasting Using AI
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta
FundersKorea Meteorological AdministrationChung-Ang University
KeywordsMissing dataStandard deviationMultilayer perceptronStatisticsArtificial neural networkRain gaugeMean squared errorConfusion matrixComputer scienceData miningMathematicsArtificial intelligenceRadar

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The quality and completeness of rainfall data is a critical aspect in time series analysis and for prediction of future water-related disasters. An accurate estimation of missing data is essential for better rainfall prediction results. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks have been applied to solve stochastic problems in data science. This study suggests a novel approach for estimating missing rainfall data using MLP neural networks based on three configurations that are represented by the monsoon season (MS), non-monsoon season, and non-seasonal variation. For this purpose, a mathematical model was created to analyze and predict the time series of daily rainfall data in Seoul, South Korea. Missing rainfall data were reconstructed using the rainfall data of the other five stations after removing rainfall data from station number two in three time periods. The results of this study indicate that the new architecture of the MLP can accurately predict the missing rainfall data, particularly in the MS configuration when using only the rainfall data obtained during the MS. The performance of the proposed model was tested using the following evaluation criteria: root mean square error, mean absolute error, correlation coefficient, mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, and standard deviation. The confusion matrix showed values of 89, 83, and 92% for accuracy, recall, and precision, respectively. This indicates that the proposed model can effectively perform rainfall data reconstruction and predict missing rainfall data accurately when the length of the statistical period is limited to the MS with a high volume of rainfall.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.304
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0020.005
Research integrity0.0000.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.246
GPT teacher head0.426
Teacher spread0.179 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it