The Impact of Genital Ulcers on HIV Transmission Has Been Underestimated—A Critical Review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the early 1990s, several observational studies determined that genital ulcer disease (GUD), in either the index or the exposed person, facilitates HIV transmission. Several meta-analyses have since presented associated risk ratios (RR) over the baseline per-act transmission probability (PATP) usually in the range of 2-5. Here we review all relevant observational studies and meta-analyses, and show that the estimation of RRs was, in most cases, biased by assuming the presence of GUD at any time during long follow-up periods, while active genital ulcers were present in a small proportion of the time. Only two studies measured the GUD co-factor effect in PATPs focusing on acts in which ulcers were present, and both found much higher RRs (in the range 11-112). We demonstrate that these high RRs can be reconciled with the studies on which currently accepted low RRs were based, if the calculations are restricted to the actual GUD episodes. Our results indicate that the effect of genital ulcers on the PATP of HIV might be much greater than currently accepted. We conclude that the medical community should work on the assumption that HIV risk is very high during active genital ulcers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".