The effect of baseline cognition and delirium on long-term cognitive impairment and mortality: a prospective population-based study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: There is an unmet public health need to understand better the relationship between baseline cognitive function, the occurrence and severity of delirium, and subsequent cognitive decline. Our aim was to quantify the relationship between baseline cognition and delirium and follow-up cognitive impairment. Methods: We did a prospective longitudinal study in a stable representative community sample of adults aged 70 years or older who were registered with a Camden-based general practitioner in the London Borough of Camden (London, UK). Participants were recruited by invitation letters from general practice lists or by direct recruitment of patients from memory clinics or patients recently discharged from secondary care. We quantified baseline cognitive function with the modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status. In patients who were admitted to hospital, we undertook daily assessments of delirium using the Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale (MDAS). We estimated the association of pre-admission baseline cognitive function with delirium prevalence, severity, and duration. We assessed subsequent cognitive function 2 years after baseline recruitment using the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status. Regression models were adjusted by age, sex, education, illness severity, and frailty. Findings: We recruited 1510 participants (median age 77 [IQR 73-82], 57% women) between March, 2017, and October, 2018. 209 participants were admitted to hospital across 371 episodes (1999 person-days of assessment). Better baseline cognition was associated with a lower risk of delirium (odds ratio 0·63, 95% CI 0·45 to 0·89) and with less severe delirium (-1·6 MDAS point, 95% CI -2·6 to -0·7). Individuals with high baseline cognition (baseline Z score +2·0 SD) had demonstrable decline even without delirium (follow-up Z score +1·2 SD). However, those with a high delirium burden had an even larger absolute decline of 2·2 SD in Z score (follow-up Z score -0·2). Once individuals had more than 2 days of moderate delirium, the rates of death over 2 years were similar regardless of baseline cognition; a better baseline cognition no longer conferred any mortality benefit. Interpretation: A higher baseline cognitive function is associated with a good prognosis with regard to likelihood and severity of delirium. However, those with a high baseline cognition and with delirium had the highest degree of cognitive decline, a change similar to the decline observed in individuals with a high amyloid burden in other cohorts. Older people with a healthy baseline cognitive function who develop delirium stand to lose the most after delirium. This group could benefit from targeted cognitive rehabilitation interventions after delirium.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".