A new ice shelf melt model that accounts for freshwater discharge and application to Denman Glacier, East Antarctica
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ice shelf basal melting is the primary mechanism by which the Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass. While ocean forcing is the principal driver of basal melting, recent evidence suggests that localized melt maxima are located along deep grounding lines where large quantities of subglacial water are being discharged into sub-ice shelf cavities. As any change in the configuration of the grounding line can drastically influence the stress regime of the entire upstream grounded glacier, it is crucial we resolve this subglacial discharge-driven melting in a basal melt rate parameterization that can be used in standalone ice sheet models. Here, we extend the application of a 1D ocean and subglacial discharge driven melt parameterization into a 2D ice sheet model and apply it in forward simulations of Denman Glacier, East Antarctica. Using subglacial hydrology model outputs to constrain the discharge inputs, we find that this parameterization resolves both local maxima and the large-scale spatial distribution of melt beneath the ice shelves buttressing Denman, Totten, Thwaites, and Pine Island glaciers. In the forward simulations of Denman Glacier, the melt contribution from subglacial discharge is required to reproduce contemporary patterns of grounding line retreat and rates volume loss. Under realistic 21st century ocean and subglacial forcing scenarios, Denman and Scott glaciers undergo largescale retreat and Denman Glacier retreats upstream to a ~10 km prograde section of bed topography upon which the grounding line stabilizes. However, under enhanced forcing, it is possible that Denman’s grounding line can overcome this topographic high and retreat inland into the deepest submarine trench on Earth beyond 2100
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".