Jet waveguides - links to persistent surface weather and sub-seasonal predictability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Midlatitude synoptic-scale Rossby waves propagate along narrow bands of enhanced potential vorticity gradients co-located with the jet streams – the jet waveguides. These waveguides influence where and how efficiently the waves can propagate. The structure and location of the waveguides further affects how boundary wave forcing e.g., from the tropics or the surface forces and interacts with the midlatitudes waves. Very persistent waveguides can lead to persistent surface weather, a recent example is the flow situation over the Atlantic in summer 2021. Persistent waveguides potentially offer increased sub-seasonal predictability. Alas, the story becomes more complicated as the jet waveguides do not exist in isolation, but rather form in response to midlatitude dynamics and boundary forcing and these two-way interactions need to be considered when investigating sub-seasonal predictability. This overview presentation will introduce the key characteristics of the jet waveguides, provide some illustrative examples and close with an overview of open questions and suggestions for ways forward.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".