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Record W4221014773 · doi:10.37394/232020.2022.2.11

Classic Probability Revisited (II): Algebraic Operations of the Extended Probability Theory

2022· article· en· W4221014773 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenuePROOF · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicCognitive Computing and Networks
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsConditional probabilityProbability theoryTree diagramBayes' theoremComputer scienceLaw of total probabilityApplied probabilityInferenceProbability measureTheoretical computer scienceAlgebraic numberEvent (particle physics)Probability distributionMathematicsBayesian probabilityArtificial intelligenceDiscrete mathematicsPosterior probability

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Part II of this paper presents a set of comprehensive algebraic operators on the extended mathematical structures of the general probability theory. It is recognized that the classic probability theory is cyclically defined among a small set of highly coupled operations. In order to solve this fundamental problem, a reductive framework of the general probability theory is introduced. It is found that conditional probability operation on consecutive events is the key to independently manipulate other probability operations. This leads to a revisited framework of rigorous manipulations on general probabilities. It also provides a proof for a revisited Bayes’ law fitting in more general contexts of variant sample spaces and complex event relations in fundamental probability theories. The revisited probability theory enables a rigorous treatment of uncertainty events and causations in formal inference, qualification, quantification, and semantic analysis in contemporary fields such as cognitive informatics, computational intelligence, cognitive robots, complex systems, soft computing, and brain informatics.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.454
Threshold uncertainty score0.655

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.022
GPT teacher head0.241
Teacher spread0.219 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it