Physically Based Deep Learning Framework to Model Intense Precipitation Events at Engineering Scales
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The high computational cost of super-resolution (< 250 m) climate simulations is a major barrier for generating climate change information at such high spatial and temporal resolutions required by many sectors for planning local and asset-specific climate change adaptation strategies. This study couples machine learning and physical modelling paradigms to develop a computationally efficient simulator-emulator framework for generating super-resolution climate information. To this end, a regional climate model (RCM) is applied over the city of Montreal, for the summers of 2015 to 2020, at 2.5 km (i.e., low resolution – LR) and 250 m (i.e., high resolution – HR), which is used to train and validate the proposed super-resolution deep learning (DL) model. In the field of video super-resolution, convolutional neural networks combined with motion compensation have been used to merge information from multiple LR frames to generate high-quality HR images. In this study, a recurrent DL approach based on passing the generated HR estimate through time helps the DL model to recreate fine details and produce temporally consistent fields, resembling the data assimilation process commonly used in numerical weather prediction. Time-invariant HR surface fields and storm motion (approximated by RCM-simulated wind) are also considered in the DL model, which helps further improve output realism. Results suggest that the DL model is able to generate HR precipitation estimates with significantly lower errors than other methods used, especially for intense short-duration precipitation events, which often occur during the warm season and are required to evaluate climate resiliency of urban storm drainage systems. The generic and flexible nature of the developed framework makes it even more promising as it can be applied to other climate variables, periods and regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".