Future changes of East Asian cyclones in the CMIP5 models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Future changes of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over East Asia are investigated using the models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To quantify ETC frequency, intensity, and genesis changes in a warming climate, the objective tracking algorithm is applied to the CMIP5 models which provide 6-hourly wind data with no missing values in the high-terrain region. The historical simulations reasonably well capture the spatial distribution of ETC properties, except for noticeable biases in, and downstream of, the high-terrain regions. Such biases are particularly pronounced in the models with a coarse spatial resolution and a smooth topography which weakens lee cyclogenesis. The best five models, which show better performance for historical simulations than other models, are used to evaluate the possible changes of East Asian ETCs under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models project a reduced cyclogenesis in the leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau, and over East China Sea and western North Pacific in the late 21st century, resulting in a reduced ETC frequency from the east coast of China to the western North Pacific. The ETC intensity also shows a hint of weakening over the North Pacific. These ETC property changes are largely consistent with an enhanced static stability and a reduced vertical wind shear in a warming climate. This result indicates that the local baroclinicity, instead of increased moisture content, plays a critical role in determining the future changes of East Asian ETCs.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".