Arctic Warming: A Perspective from the Underground
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The thermal regime of the Arctic subsurface is important, for example, in the context of greenhouse-gas release from thawing permafrost soils. Measurements of Arctic subsurface temperatures, however, are scarce and limited in time, with virtually no observations over climatological time scales. We address this gap in knowledge by estimating the long-term evolution of subsurface temperatures in the Arctic (north of 60ºN) since 1600 Common Era (CE) to the present using 110 deep subsurface temperature profiles. The Arctic subsurface has warmed by 1.7±0.8 ºC during 1970-2000 CE. These estimates are conservative, as the effects of latent heat are not included in the analysis. Although there are significant spatial variations, the Arctic subsurface is warming faster than the global land surface and subsurface (1.2±0.2 ºC) during the same period. Uncertainties in this analysis arise mostly from deficient knowledge about the subsurface physical properties and limited data coverage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".