Long lasting greenhouse gas emissions beyond abrupt permafrost thaw event in permafrost peatlands
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abrupt permafrost thawing is expected to release large amounts of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback to climate warming. There is, however, still large uncertainty in the timing, duration, magnitude, and mechanisms controlling this process, which hampers accurate quantification of permafrost carbon climate feedback cycles. The current understanding supports that abrupt permafrost thaw will lead to surface inundation and create anaerobic landscapes, which dominantly produce methane during the decomposition process. Over time, natural succession and vegetation growth may decrease methane release and increase net carbon uptake. We investigated how rapid permafrost thawing and subsequent natural succession over time affect CO2, CH4, and N2O release at a field site in northern Norway (69ᵒN), where recent abrupt degradation of permafrost created thaw ponds in palsa peat plateau-mire ecosystems. The site exhibits a natural gradient of permafrost thaw, which also corresponds to a strong hydrological gradient (i.e. dry peat plateau underlain by intact permafrost, seasonally inundated thaw slumps, thaw ponds, and natural succession ponds covered by sphagnum and sedges). Since 2017, we used a range of manual and automated techniques to measure changes in vegetation, soil and water microclimate, biogeochemistry, and soil CO2, CH4, and N2O concentrations and fluxes across the permafrost thaw gradient. In the three-year observations, we show that abrupt permafrost thaw and land surface subsidence – both intermediate slumping and pond formation – increase net annual carbon loss. Permafrost thaw accelerated CO2 release greatly in thaw slumps (177.5 gCO2 m-2) compared to intact permafrost peat plateau (59.0 gCO2 m-2). During the growing season, peat plateau was a small sink of atmospheric CH4 (-2.5 gCH4 m-2), whereas permafrost thaw slumping and pond formation increased CH4 release dramatically (ranging from 9.7 to 36.1 gCH4 m-2). Furthermore, CH4 release continues to increase even in natural succession pond likely due to aerenchyma transport of CH4 from deeper soil. The overall N2O release was negligeable except in the bare soil peat plateau. The net radiative forcing of ecosystem carbon balance will depend on the carbon uptake from the natural succession of vegetation, but we show that greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase beyond abrupt permafrost thaw event towards natural succession.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".