Epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Africa
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There is a dearth of information on COVID-19 disease dynamics in Africa. To fill this gap, we investigated the epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the continent. We retrieved 5229 complete genomes collected in 33 African countries from the GISAID database. We investigated the circulating diversity, reconstructed the viral evolutionary divergence and history, and studied the case and death trends in the continent. Almost a fifth (144/782, 18.4%) of Pango lineages found worldwide circulated in Africa, with five different lineages dominating over time. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that African viruses cluster more closely with those from Europe. We also identified two motifs that could function as integrin-binding sites and N-glycosylation domains. These results shed light on the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of the circulating viral diversity in Africa. They also emphasize the need to expand surveillance efforts in Africa to help inform and implement better public health measures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".