The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on greenhouse gases: a multi-city analysis of in situ atmospheric observations
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We tested the capabilities of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) measurement networks to detect abrupt changes in emissions, such as those caused by the roughly 6-week COVID-19 lockdown in March 2020 using hourly in situ GHG mole fraction measurements from six North American cities. We compared observed changes in CO 2 , CO, and CH 4 for different mole fraction metrics (diurnal amplitude, vertical gradients, enhancements, within-hour variances, and multi-gas enhancement ratios) during 2020 relative to previous years for three periods: pre-lockdown, lockdown, and ongoing recovery. The networks showed decreases in CO 2 and CO metrics during the lockdown period in all cities for all metrics, while changes in the CH 4 metrics were variable across cities and not statistically significant. Traffic decreases in 2020 were correlated with the changes in GHG metrics, whereas changes in meteorology and biology were not, implying that decreases in the CO 2 and CO metrics were related to reduced emissions from traffic and demonstrating the sensitivity of these tower networks to rapid changes in urban emissions. The enhancements showed signatures of the lockdowns more consistently than the three micrometeorological methods, possibly because the urban measurements are collected at relatively high altitudes to be sensitive to whole-city emissions. This suggests that urban observatories might benefit from a mixture of measurement altitudes to improve observational network sensitivity to both city-scale and more local fluxes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it