Assessment of tissue toxicity risk in breast radiotherapy using Bayesian networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: The purpose of this analysis is to predict worsening post-treatment normal tissue toxicity in patients undergoing accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) therapy and to quantitatively identify which diagnostic, anatomical, and dosimetric features are contributing to these outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective study of APBI treatments was performed using 32 features pertaining to various stages of the patient's treatment journey. These features were used to inform and construct a Bayesian network (BN) based on both statistical analysis of feature distributions and relative clinical importance. The target feature for prediction was defined as a measurable worsening of telangiectasia, subcutaneous tissue induration, or fibrosis when compared against the observed baseline. Parameter learning for the network was performed using data from the 299 patients included in the ACCEL trial and predictive performance was measured. Feature importance for the BN was quantified using a novel information-theoretic approach. RESULTS: 0.021 using five-fold cross-validation with separate test data across 100 trials. The volume of the clinical target volume, gross target volume, and baseline toxicity measurements were found to have the highest feature importance and mutual dependence with normal tissue toxicity in the network, representing the strongest contribution to patient outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The BN outperformed conventional ML techniques in predicting tissue toxicity outcomes and provided deeper insight into which features are contributing to these outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.020 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".