Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. A column model of the Arctic atmosphere is developed including the nonlinear positive feedback responses of surface albedo and water vapour to temperature. The atmosphere is treated as a grey gas and the flux of longwave radiation is governed by the two-stream Schwarzschild equations. Water vapour concentration is determined by the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to model carbon dioxide concentrations into the future. The resulting 9D two-point boundary value problem is solved under various RCPs and the solutions analysed. The model predicts that under the highest carbon pathway, the Arctic climate will undergo an irreversible bifurcation to a warm steady state, which would correspond to annually ice-free conditions. Under the lowest carbon pathway, corresponding to very aggressive carbon emission reductions, the model exhibits only a mild increase in Arctic temperatures. Under the two intermediate carbon pathways, temperatures increase more substantially, and the system enters a region of bistability where external perturbations could possibly cause an irreversible switch to a warm, ice-free state.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.023 | 0.011 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.176 | 0.138 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".