Refinement of the convex shape model and tumbling spin state of (99942) Apophis using the 2020–2021 apparition data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Context. The close approach of the near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis to Earth in 2029 will provide a unique opportunity to examine how the physical properties of the asteroid could be changed due to the Earth’s gravitational perturbation. As a result, the Republic of Korea is planning a rendezvous mission to Apophis. Aims. Our aim was to use photometric data from the apparitions in 2020−2021 to refine the shape model and spin state of Apophis. Methods. Using thirty-six 1- to 2-meter-class ground-based telescopes and the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, we carried out a photometric observation campaign throughout the 2020−2021 apparition. The convex shape model and spin state were refined using the light-curve inversion method. Results. According to our best-fit model, Apophis is rotating in a short-axis mode with rotation and precession periods of 264.178 h and 27.38547 h, respectively. The angular momentum vector orientation of Apophis was found to be (275°, −85°) in the ecliptic coordinate system. The ratio of the dynamic moments of inertia of this asteroid was fitted to I a : I b : I c = 0.64 : 0.97 : 1, which corresponds to an elongated prolate ellipsoid. These findings regarding the spin state and shape model can be used to both design the space mission scenario and investigate the impact of the Earth’s tidal force during close encounters.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".