Artificial Intelligence with Statistical Confidence Scores for Detection of Acute or Subacute Hemorrhage on Noncontrast CT Head Scans
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose To present a method that automatically detects, subtypes, and locates acute or subacute intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) on noncontrast CT (NCCT) head scans; generates detection confidence scores to identify high-confidence data subsets with higher accuracy; and improves radiology worklist prioritization. Such scores may enable clinicians to better use artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Materials and Methods This retrospective study included 46 057 studies from seven “internal” centers for development (training, architecture selection, hyperparameter tuning, and operating-point calibration; n = 25 946) and evaluation (n = 2947) and three "external" centers for calibration (n = 400) and evaluation (n = 16 764). Internal centers contributed developmental data, whereas external centers did not. Deep neural networks predicted the presence of ICH and subtypes (intraparenchymal, intraventricular, subarachnoid, subdural, and/or epidural hemorrhage) and segmentations per case. Two ICH confidence scores are discussed: a calibrated classifier entropy score and a Dempster-Shafer score. Evaluation was completed by using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and report turnaround time (RTAT) modeling on the evaluation set and on confidence score–defined subsets using bootstrapping. Results The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for ICH were 0.97 (0.97, 0.98) and 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) on internal and external center data, respectively. On 80% of the data stratified by calibrated classifier and Dempster-Shafer scores, the system improved the Youden indexes, increasing them from 0.84 to 0.93 (calibrated classifier) and from 0.84 to 0.92 (Dempster-Shafer) for internal centers and increasing them from 0.78 to 0.88 (calibrated classifier) and from 0.78 to 0.89 (Dempster-Shafer) for external centers (P < .001). Models estimated shorter RTAT for AI-prioritized worklists with confidence measures than for AI-prioritized worklists without confidence measures, shortening RTAT by 27% (calibrated classifier) and 27% (Dempster-Shafer) for internal centers and shortening RTAT by 25% (calibrated classifier) and 27% (Dempster-Shafer) for external centers (P < .001). Conclusion AI that provided statistical confidence measures for ICH detection on NCCT scans reliably detected and subtyped hemorrhages, identified high-confidence predictions, and improved worklist prioritization in simulation. Keywords: CT, Head/Neck, Hemorrhage, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2022
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.084 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".