A new perspective on increased emergence of Central Pacific ENSO in the recent two decades
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this study, we provide a new perspective on the recent increased emergence of the central Pacific type of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results indicate that early-spring Aleutian Low (AL) intensity has a remarkable impact on the following winter ENSO especially after the late-1990s. Decrease (increase) in the early-spring AL strength tends to induce an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over subtropical North Pacific via wave-mean flow interaction. The anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) leads to sea surface temperature (SST) increase (decrease) in the equatorial Pacific in the following summer via wind-evaporation-SST feedback and trade wind charging mechanism, which further contributes to succeeding central Pacific-like El Niño (La Niña). This remarkable AL’s impact on ENSO is attributable to enhancement of the background trade winds, which is related to changes of both the AMO and NPGO from positive to negative phases around the late-1990s. In contrast, global warming is suggested to have a negative effect on the recent increased connection of the early-spring AL with the following winter ENSO. The results offer the potential to advance our understanding of the factors that explain decrease of the prediction skill of ENSO since the late-1990s.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".