Secular changes in metamorphism and metamorphic cooling rates track the evolving plate-tectonic regime on Earth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When disturbed, dynamic emergent systems, such as tectonics on Earth, may transition from one stable state to another if the perturbation is sufficiently large. Here, we identify such state shifts through examination of statistically significant change points in the time series of metamorphic pressure–temperature and cooling rate data. Change points occur in the mid-Paleoproterozoic, the Mesoproterozoic, the early and late Paleozoic and the Cenozoic. To compare the timing of change points with mantle geodynamics, we interrogate the time series of calculated mantle potential temperature, which yields a statistically significant drop of >130°C in the mid-Paleoproterozoic, indicating a change in the mechanism of mantle cooling. We interpret changes in the mid-Paleoproterozoic to relate to the global emergence of stable subduction, orogenesis associated with the formation of the Nuna megacontinent, and slab breakoff, consistent with the operation of a distinctive style of Proterozoic plate tectonics. By contrast, changes from the dawn of the Cambrian onward may relate to the large volume of sediments supplied to trenches following multiple Cryogenian and Paleozoic glaciations. Sediments acted as a lubricant, allowing deeper subduction, transport of lower continental plates to mantle depths and faster metamorphic cooling rates, features characteristic of modern plate tectonics. Supplementary material: A dataset of metamorphic cooling rates is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5943418
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".