Clustering community science data to infer songbird migratory connectivity in the Western Hemisphere
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Migratory connectivity describes the spatial linkage among migrating individuals through time. Accounting for it is necessary for full annual cycle conservation planning, to avoid uneven protection leading to overall population declines. However, conventional methods used to study migratory connectivity usually demand substantial fiscal and human resources. We present a methodology that infers patterns of migratory connectivity for songbirds using relative abundance models created from eBird, a global community science program. We compare our inferences with previously described patterns of migratory connectivity for two species assumed to exhibit broadscale parallel migration strategies: wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Initial findings suggest that our method has the potential to be a rapid and inexpensive way to infer broad patterns of connectivity for species that do not engage in leapfrog migration nor deviate much from parallel migration. Our flexible framework can be used to guide sampling designs for studies of migratory connectivity and to generate hypotheses for species in need of urgent conservation planning for which migratory connectivity has not yet been established.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".