Safety of Minimizing Intensity of Follow-up on Active Surveillance for Clinical Stage I Testicular Germ Cell Tumors
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We have recommended active surveillance as the preferred management option for clinical stage I (CSI) testicular germ cell tumors (GCTs) since 1980. Over time, the recommended intensity of surveillance has decreased; however, the impact on relapse detection has not been investigated. To examine relapse rate, time to relapse, extent of disease, and burden of treatment at relapse across decreasing surveillance intensity over time. CSI GCT patients under active surveillance from 1981 to 2021 were included in this study. Through four major iterations in both nonseminomatous (NSGCT) and seminoma surveillance schedules, visit frequency, blood testing, and imaging have been decreased successively. Low-dose, noncontrast computed tomography (CT) scans were adopted in 2011. Categorical variables and time to relapse were compared using chi-square and Fisher’s exact or Kruskal-Wallis test, respectively. A total of 1583 consecutive patients (942 with seminoma and 641 with NSGCT) were included. In seminoma, chest x-rays were reduced from 13 to one and CT scans were reduced from 20 to ten. Relapse rate, time to relapse, N or M category, and International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) classification did not change. In NSGCT, chest x-rays were reduced from 27 to zero and CT scans were reduced from 11 to five. Relapse rate (from 46.2% to 21.2%, p = 0.002) and the median time to relapse (from 6.54 to 4.47 mo, p = 0.025) decreased. No difference in relapsed disease burden was identified by N, M, and S category or IGCCCG classification. Treatment burden at relapse and GCT cancer deaths remained similar for seminoma and NSGCT. Limitations include the retrospective design and large time period covered. Despite considerable reductions in surveillance intensity, we did not observe an increase in disease extent, treatment burden, or GCT cancer deaths upon relapse. These results support that our current lower-intensity active surveillance schedules are safe for managing CSI GCT. Our current reduced-intensity surveillance schedules for clinical stage I germ cell tumors appear to be safe.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it