Bibliographic record
Abstract
Upstream investment is the main driver for employment in our industry, and forecasts of company spending are eagerly expected by the service sector. I commented in my January column on the initial activity estimates made by West (Evercore). The forecasts have now been firmed up and the increases range between 15 and 17% in 2022 compared to 2021, with growth in all geographical regions. Evercore even projects that 2022 will be the beginning of a multiyear positive cycle for the industry, following 2021 which was a “renaissance of sorts” for the E&P sector. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook for February 2022 forecasts that US oil production will rise to 12.0 and 12.6 million B/D in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The latter would be the highest level ever reached, exceeding the previous record in 2019 by 0.3 million B/D. In their fourth-quarter announcements, the leaders of major service companies made the most optimistic comments for the past several years. Halliburton’s CEO Jeff Miller stated that “simultaneous” growth will occur in both the North American and international markets with a “momentum that I have not seen in a long time.” For Schlumberger’s CEO Olivier Le Peuch, “a strong multiyear upcycle” is underway as capital spending commitments are set to increase by 20% in North America and in the “low to mid-teens” across the broader international market. Such notes from the service sector are welcome news for SPE, as its financial sustainability depends on the engagement of the industry through trade shows, exhibitions, and meetings. Fiscal year 2022 (which ends on 31 March 2022) was the most challenging one in SPE’s history, as we chose not to diminish the level of service to our members and continued to provide virtual and hybrid information channels. SPE’s account balance was positively impacted by the outstanding performance of its reserve funds in financial markets and the support from the US government through instruments such as the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). These allowed a considerable reduction in loss to an estimated $3 million. For fiscal year 2023 (ending 31 March 2023), the SPE Finance Committee has retained a cautious outlook, with significant uncertainties resulting from the pandemic situation. Early signals coming from the success of the recent hydraulic fracturing technology conferences and exhibitions in Oman and the US are positive. The financial strategy will be adapted in the coming months based on the results of key events such as IPTC, OTC Asia, and the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.021 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.019 | 0.022 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.015 |
| Research integrity | 0.011 | 0.024 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".